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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Mick Harper wrote:

I fear you are right but they've got no chance. First because the Russian population would be prepared to be mobilised to keep 'their' Crimea.


Not sure, Moscow is 750 miles from Crimea, it's not like the loss of Crimea actually poses a threat to, say, Moscovites. But unhappy Moscovites do pose a threat to Putin. Are they really willing to undergo 4 months training, and off to Crimea or Donbas with old tech, against what is now superior Ukrainian artillery? It would also mean that Putin has to formally declare war on Ukraine, which he clearly doesn't want to do.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Not sure, Moscow is 750 miles from Crimea

What's Moscow got to do with it? Alexander the First abandoned it without blinking and Stalin was preparing to do the same. But Alexander II and Stalin refused to abandon Crimea.

it's not like the loss of Crimea actually poses a threat to, say, Moscovites.

Yes it does. Muscovites are Russians and Russians are only happy when they are posing a threat to others. Good grief, there's not much else to be happy about if you're a Russian. Crimea (but not Moscow) poses a threat to all-sorts.

But unhappy Moscovites do pose a threat to Putin.

You think? Have you seen a revolutionary mob in Moscow recently? Sandals R Us. The last time they hit the barricades was to defend an embattled regime (Gorbachev's). Petersburg... now you're talking.

Are they really willing to undergo 4 months training, and off to Crimea or Donbas with old tech, against what is now superior Ukrainian artillery?

They won't have to. There are oodles of cannon fodder on the other side of the Urals and tons of money in the kitty to pay for mercenaries.

It would also mean that Putin has to formally declare war on Ukraine, which he clearly doesn't want to do.

This is just western media hype. He'll declare the Fifth Crusade if it's necessary. Do you really think any Russian believed in the Special Military Operation in the first place? They've been trained to interpret double-speak ever since Ivan said he was Terrible. Though I admit that was a double-bluff.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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If Putin wants a general mobilisation, Russia law is he has to declare a War, and give conscripts 4 months training. He will carry on for now with mercenaries and "volunteers.", ie the Wagner group is currently recruiting prisoners who are having their sentences quashed. Kadyrov is calling for all the republics to provide a new 80,000 volunteer army to help his "old mate" Putin out (Kadyrov could be making a power play here). I doubt Putin will call a mobilisation even if Kherson falls. With some of the elite units charged with defending Moscow either lost in Kharkiv or stuck in Kherson, would you?
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Mick Harper
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Dunno, I gave up after the phrase "Russian law is..."
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Grant



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Did Stalin know about this in 41!
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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The Russians have adopted the Ukrainian tactic, previously highlighted and criticised by Amnesty, of "sheltering in cities" like Kherson, rather than facing their agressors in the wide open whilst artillery shells hail down on them. This will no doubt warrant another report by Amnesty criticising the Ukrainians for inventing this despicable tactic. Mind you reports of Ukrainian advances could all be fake news as Vlad insists that Ivan is going slowly forward as planned.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Just a thought. Wouldn't it be good if rival soldiers wore bright coloured tunics of, say, red or blue, so that they were clearly identifiable from both each other, and civilians? This could save a lot of folks.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Russia TV pundits think they missed an oportuinty by not launching a nuclear attack on Britain during the Queen's funeral.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1572087951416336385
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Putin's big public speech is really a repackaging of previous announcements, with a bit of new enforcement stuff, really no different to what happens in the UK, when you get bad news about operation waiting times, or some such. Last Putin announcement end of August was to increase troops by 137,000 troops, that's now up (according to Defence Minister) to a possible 300,000, (clearly an aspiration). Russia hasn't got the logistics in place to support or train these sort of numbers. These folks are going to get new kit (clearly again an aspiration) as they can't supply new kit to all the current folks fighting. Russia has been trying to get more troops and improve logistics from the start of SMO (not without limited success) but the pace is frustrating Putin's critics.

The main new bit (went through the Dumas) is that they are getting tougher on those reservists refusing to serve, and for how long they serve (it is now going to be until the end of the SMO or worse). This will probabbly cause some flight and avoidance of said reservists, some of whom will be reluctant to go given state of fighting and success of Ukrainian artillery.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Now if Putino was sneaky he would rig the Kherson election so he lost it, but win Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. That way he could "prove all the votes were fair" and negoiate the withdrawal of what is a surrounded army in the Kherson area without losing face, on the grounds of not having a democratic mandate to be there. He then declares victory (on the basis of the original Donbas war aims) and starts rebuilding relationships. The water to Crimea will still be a problem. But the Empire lives on.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Russia has decided against a general ban on men leaving the country, as a list of those now subject to mobilisation has been provided to their border service.

Expect the much hated Britain to be one prime destination for thousands of Russians fleeing call up, as these folks certainly won't be travelling to Poland or other Eastern European countries. The idea that many will be stopped at the Russian border is nonsense. There will be no correct list (they will have spent the last two weeks cobbling together something, trying to find out who left the military 10 years ago), there will be travel chaos and then, because rich powerful Russian folks want holidays without a 12 hour wait for a flight, every Igor, Anatoly, Mikhail, Danil, Victor escaping mobilisation will be waived through.

"Welcome to Heathrow, we have a plane to Rwanda for you" " Can you tell that to my solictor, Tommy, as you wouldn't be saying that if I was Ukrainian" Oh dear.....
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Mick Harper
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On holiday among friends and relations of moderately left-wing and BBC-tinged views, I kept having to explain that Russia is not moderately left-wing with BBC-tinged views. They weren't listening.
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Mick Harper
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What a weird Tory budget. We've just splurged the kitchen sink on Covid and related measures. We've just splurged another kitchen sink on energy prices. So what does the sound-money party do? Splurges it all over again on tax cuts. [Memo to Kwa-Zulu: if the money-lenders deem you're borrowing too much they'll raise the rates on all government borrowing. Now that would require an almighty splurge, though in the other direction.]

And what is this Truss-piloted splurge for? It is to raise growth. I see, and since we have full employment and you have banned significant fresh inward migration, where is this coming from? From preventing the outward migration of bankers apparently. But it's long term, explained the plausible young man on Newsnight, to achieve a two and a half per cent growth rate. Well, duckiepoos, Britain has had a long-term growth rate of two per cent ever since the Napoleonic Wars so let's hope these stay-at-home bankers are up to the job.

Gordon Bennet, it's like having Gordon Bennet in charge. But remember your AE. It might easily work.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Mick Harper wrote:
What a weird Tory budget. We've just splurged the kitchen sink on Covid and related measures. We've just splurged another kitchen sink on energy prices. So what does the sound-money party do? Splurges it all over again on tax cuts. [Memo to Kwa-Zulu: if the money-lenders deem you're borrowing too much they'll raise the rates on all government borrowing. Now that would require an almighty splurge, though in the other direction.]

And what is this Truss-piloted splurge for? It is to raise growth. I see, and since we have full employment and you have banned significant fresh inward migration, where is this coming from?


To be fair, net inward migration is abour the 200,000-250,000 a year (we are as a country unable to count) that is roughly the size of a reasonably large English city, it's going down from over 300,000 a year but it's hardly a bar. Foreign nationals are about 1 in eight of the workforce. Getting in more migrant labour will never be a problem.
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Mick Harper
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A good point. A growth rate of two and a half per cent (as measured by GNP) is no use if it is achieved by a half a per cent growth in the labour market. (From a strictly British perspective. AE measures growth in overall felicific calculus percentages of course.)

PS If the growth-via-migrancy is unmeasured, the growth in happiness from believing it is home-grown should not be lightly dismissed. Especially by the Labour Party contemplating its chances at the next election. Nor can they say, "Hey, it's all down to illegal immigrants" given their general tolerance for the phenomenon.
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