The Importance of Sport (NEW CONCEPTS)

[Mick Harper]

The lead story on both Channel 4 News and Newsnight was not the Climate Change Conference at Glasgow but the resignation of the chairman of Yorkshire county cricket club. It was difficult to identify the exact reason such was the hysteria and the transparent decency of the bloke himself, but it appeared to go back to a complaint from a Pakistani-origin but Yorkshire-born ex-captain of the club who had experienced racial 'banter' from other players, and that the club's hierarchy had not taken his complaints seriously. They set up an enquiry the following day but this had not resulted in any fines, sackings or other punishments so was -- though the word was not used -- something of a whitewash.

Monty Panesar was brought on at the end to report his own experiences of racism at Northants, Sussex, Essex and England but said he had experienced none.

[Mick Harper]

OMG, both pundits urged the sacking of Solskjaer on Match of the Day and St Garry didn't rebuke them. That is the equivalent of Tory grandees calling at Number Ten with the fell words, "It is with a heavy heart, prime minister..."

[Mick Harper]

There are lessons for AEists. Few will remember but the boy wonder was appointed specifically as a stop-gap while the grandees searched for a proper heavyweight to steer the ship of state. United then embarked on an unbeaten run and Solksjaer got the gigg. Whereupon the run stopped never to start again until the old man died. Yes, that's right, the berks had committed the cardinal AE sin of judging by results.

Solksjaer had not demonstrated the capability to manage the biggest club in the world, he had demonstrated (a) there is normally a new broom effect under any old new broom (b) football results tend to form long-chain polymers by virtue of the low-scoring format of football (c) the biggest club in the world will always mostly not lose matches even if Mrs Solskjaer is in charge.

And the Big Wigs continued with their Olly folly. Man U kept embarking on runs often enough for a second AE factor to come into play. People would rather be burnt at the stake than consider the possibility they got it wrong. Only when the pilots from Match of the Day climbed aboard was the tanker turned round to sail back down the ship canal away from the City and towards Liverpool.

Though of course this hasn't happened yet so he may get another season or two and I will have to come up with further strained, mixed but lovingly crafted metaphors.

[Grant]

Don’t Judge by Results - West Ham were not better than Liverpool. It was just that Liverpool’s players didn’t have their scoring boots on.

Always funny how the MoD pundits never notice total shots,total shots on target and expected goals. The sheer randomness of any individual result is always ignored.

[Mick Harper]

Yes, a constant beef. Like England batsmen playing and missing ten times before lunch on the first day and either it's 77-0 and "We've at last found an opening partnership we can really invest in" or it's seventy-seven all out and "It's time for a complete clean-out at the ECB."

However one leading indicator has changed. Time in possession really does not appear to correlate with superiority any more. It seems even the worst can now push it around like good 'uns.

[Mick Harper]

Or the pundits promoting Arteta to the Hall of Fame after a run of results that was mostly 1-0 to the Arsenal or 0-1 to the nobodies depending how you look at it. Even the normally sober Alan Smith was heard to opine after an hour of futility, "The Gunners will have to be patient in matches like this." What, you mean matches like being at home to Watford, Alanis? And this from a club that has spent more on players during the Arteta regime than any other club in the world. [Stat courtesy of Groenke Jr and confirmed by Geoff Shreeves.]

[Mick Harper]

Here's another example. The Villa manager gets the chop after a superhuman spell getting Villa to and staying in the Premiership. Where they are not even in the relegation positions despite losing Grealish. The reason? Five losses on the spin. The real reason? Nobody's ever heard of him. Nor, now will they ever. That's the problem: people never judge by results.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Grant]

Sports question for the next pub quiz. How many goals has Harry Kane scored against national teams in the current FIFA top ten?

[Grant]

Second question. How many goals against teams in the top 20

[Mick Harper]

Now that Alexander-Arnold is our new Hoddle (Beckham for younger readers) who is going to play right back?

[Grant]

The answer to my pub quiz is…one.

Don’t tell me he scored against Germany and Denmark as they are not in the current top ten. He scored one goal against France in a friendly.

Now of course most of the top scorers filled their boots against rubbish teams so not sure how relevant the stats are, but surely Southgate should have left him on the bench and allowed some of the youngsters to build up international confidence?

And answer to the second question is ten.

[Mick Harper]

You caught us all out with Germany, Grant, well done! But I am obliged to question your methodology about 'ten against top twenty teams'. Have you checked that each team was in the top twenty when Kane scored each goal? This would require considerable work on your part unless you are relying on an unnamed source. I'm not accusing you of this but we need to know where we stand. Only nine of course because of one (France) being in the top ten unless you are being worryingly ambiguous. Ditto the suddenly introduced -- only to be immediately dispatched -- status of 'friendly'. Again, this might be inadvertence on your part.

Still, you are clearly enjoying your work here in the AEL Stats Office and please do not listen to rumours we are are actively seeking someone with a more populist approach. As it says on our mugs "The truth is always boring". Except Hatty's mug which says "You don't have to be mad to work here but you will be sectioned if you are."

PS We are also worrying about 'national teams in FIFA's current top ten'. This raises a great many political questions which you are not, I'm afraid, qualified to deal with viz England herself not being a nation. But a list of the non-national ones would be a proper statistical use of your talents.

[Grant]

It’s based on current top ten, of course. Do you think I’m the sort of person who would do that much work?

FIFA’s top ten is not actuarially robust and is regularly criticised. But it’s interesting because it reflects Kane’s Premier League record - loads of goals but very few against the big boys.