The Importance of Sport (NEW CONCEPTS)

[Mick Harper]

These four-team tables are always a source of statistical merriment because the mathematics are so counter-intuitive as to be way beyond journalists of all kinds (I am including pundits and TV producers doubtfully in that term). For instance, you can win the first two games of three and go out; you can lose the first two games and go through. This best-third place has added a new one: you can go through with one point, you can go out with six.

It's worth remembering why they are needed. A sixteen-team tournament is good, a thirty-two team tournament is good, but in Europe (fifty-one teams and rising) the first is considered too exclusive and the second would be silly. Hence a twenty-four team tournament.

On the big 'What should England do' question I tend to the sporting option of 'beat what's put before you and let the chips lie where they may'. We're not playing well enough for cute considerations to get in the way of finding our best combination. No, not dropping Southgate.

[Wile E. Coyote]

I don't really get why you have to have at the end of the group stages this winner of Group x plays Second of Group y. It only encourages wild conspiracy theorists. Ahem.

Much better to count points, goal difference and other tie breakers, then play 1 v 16, 2 v 15 and so on. You would get better group games as well.

I suspect it is to do with the merchandising of wall charts.

[Mick Harper]

That is a rather magnificent idea, Wiley. The South Americans have an all-play-all system for their world cup qualifiers but that would be impractical for a tourney. Though OK for cricket when you can play every day. Your idea would have many merits:

1. As you say, all teams would play all games to the uttermost to get a high seeding including not coasting when the win is secured
2. But they will still have to balance it against rotation to prevent burn-out
3. You can have as many groups and as many entrants (though divisible by four) as you wish
4. You could retain a 'cannot play a team from your own group' clause without breaking the principle, as in the NFL play-offs who also use a seeding system
5. As you say, conspiracy theories would be absent (though I feel that is a mark against)
6. ...er...let's hear more from others.

It will be known as the Harper-Wiley System, like Duckworth-Lewis. Or is he double-barrelled? Yes, better to call it the Harper System to avoid confusion.

[Mick Harper]

It could even theoretically mitigate Groups of Death by introducing a co-efficient but let's not get carried away.

[Mick Harper]

I was more than usually baffled by the pundits thinking England were anything other than awful. They started hoofing it as soon as they went one-up. Cue, as usual, the other team getting back into the game. And France/Germany/Portugal won't ever have left it. Still, if the clean sheets count for anything (or "No team has ever topped a group in a major tournament having scored fewer goals" as they put it) we might get to penalties and, popular myth notwithstanding, these are always fifty-fifty.

With Mount back and Grealish and Saka retained, we could do better than that, even with Kane and Sterling weighing us down. I'm pretty sure Sterling has something on Southgate. Drop him, Gareth, we'll forgive you, whatever it is. Unless it's kiddies. Unless they're Teesside kiddies.

If only the twats would practise the one constantly recurring situation -- ball with goalie -- on the training pitch. My guess is that though Gareth knows it should be done, they didn't do it in his day so he hasn't a clue how it's done. Basically, old chap, everyone has to drop back to help out until you've got numbers on your side or they give up the press whichever is the sooner. Going one-up doesn't count as sooner.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

Yes, the nation's hopes sank when he nicked one. That's him in until he's presented with his carriage clock on the pitch before England vs the Lofoten Islands in the third place final of the Offshore Cup, 2036. [Why haven't we got one this time? I always enjoyed not bothering to watch it. Who will ever forget Shilton dribbling into trouble versus A N Other in wherever it was.]

Jude Bellingham. Or South Catford as we call it.

[Wile E. Coyote]

If you take out the history, the Germans are another Croatia, on the way down, and lower ranked than England, but still in the top 15 sides in the world. It's a top 10 side, at home, against a top 15 side.

It's as good a draw as we could hope for. Expect a narrow England win.

[Mick Harper]

The same thought occurred to me. Great minds think alike, as well as you. But I rapidly dismissed it. It is, I think, a matter of what you are accustomed to, a version of 'form is temporary, class is permanent'. For instance, Germany played like gods (gotts in German) when they had to, in the second game against Portugal. We didn't play like gods at any time -- though admittedly we didn't have to. I don't believe we can step up but we can hope they don't either. They're gradually getting accustomed to being the new England.

I agree it's a better draw than some -- if only because wailing of teeth is kept to a minimum if we do go out -- and that Germany have seen better days, but I am inclined to expect a narrow German win. Altogether now

He's a Gnabry
Spelled G-N-A-B-R-Y
He was crap at the Emirates
But fab for German-eye.
(It's an eye-rhyme)

[Mick Harper]

After watching Hungary, it wasn't a group of death, it was a wall of death. Wall-to-wall. But produced by a strict application of these rankings of yours, Wiley. Time for some subjectivity, it's so much more accurate.

PS England are a top five side. Ranked no 4. Which is, as we natives of North Bellingham say, a complete J Arthur Rank.

[Grant]

But are these international teams any good anyway? I was watching the Belgium Finland game when Batshauyi was playing. The commentator said “they’re bringing on a sub to replace Lukaku. It’s Benteke”

I thought, oh there must be another player called Benteke but no, it was the Crystal Palace striker who’s scored about ten goals in three years!

So at one point, with Batshauyi and Benteke on, one fifth of the world’s best team was Crystal Palace!

[Mick Harper]

Yes, I've been posting up about the non-killer Bees ever since they started playing in the Premiership (though only very occasionally). Now for some better news. When we stun the Hun, our route through to the final is strewn with petals

Quarters: Sweden or Ukraine
Semis: Holland

We miss Belgium, France, Italy and Spain on the way to the final. It looks like my prediction this was our year to come second, something we've never managed to do, was spot on once again.

[Mick Harper]

Who experienced a desperate ennui because of no games today? We have reached the stage of every tournament when this starts happening all the time, tempered only by writing furious letters to the Editor of the Times that Johnny Foreigner has had four days rest and our lads only three and that something should be done about it but what can you expect when you allow outsiders in to play sports that we invented. Furthermore, I profoundly disagree with your correspondent that canons' gaiters may be worn without cassocks when having sex with parishioners.

[Mick Harper]

Despite strenuous efforts by the meedja to remind people of their duty, I get the strong impression that the English are not refighting old wars when it comes to Tuesday's England vs Germany. It is not quite, I accept, an ordinary fixture but we seem to have put past burdens behind us, as indeed we will put them behind us on Tuesday. Two world wars, one world cup, one Euro last sixteen. And then on to the Big One. Argentina in 2022.

One nice anecdote emerged from the media down-memory-lane coverage. The German ambassador in London called his staff together on the eve of the '66 final and said, "We must pray for an English wictory tomorrow or all our work of the last fifteen years will be undone."

[Mick Harper]

Czechonotslovakia have removed even Holland from our triumphant march to the runners-up spot. I'm not saying it's 1966 all over again when their referee sent off Rattin in return for our referee given them a pen but things are going suspiciously our way. We may have to lose to the Czechs in the semis to forestall the kind of damaging allegations that have besmirched our good name for fifty years. In fact it may be better to show definitive clean hands by losing to Sweden in the quarters. Which means there's no point beating Germany. It's too late to do anything about qualifying from the group stage.