Politics, The Final Frontier (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

'fraid not. This gentleman is merely saying what everybody has been saying all along -- that electoral sharp practice is practised in big cities in the rust belt. Good grief, this goes back to Tammany Hall. What I asked for is your equivalent but not a Trump supporter. That is someone who claims to be able to identify systematic malfeasance sufficient to swing an entire national election, on a scale of millions of votes, across at least half a dozen separate states, simply by statistical analysis or some other body of evidence that doesn't consist of thin anecdotal examples on the most miserable scale.

Come on, Ishmael, there must be Biden-supporting people out there with your powers of mathematical insight and a thirst for justice, the chips lying where they may. But I give you credit for a good stab. Hatty, put him down for an AE merit badge.

[Mick Harper]

Our next duty is to predict what happens next. The immediate future will presumably be a return to the status quo ante and Biden will reverse the more egregious Trump policies eg switching to a national, interventionary policy over Covid, rejoining the Paris accords, reversing Iran policy and so forth. But at a deeper level: whither Trump supporters?

Do they disappear back into the ranks of the two parties (and gun-toting communes in North Dakota) or are they a permanent part of a new political landscape? The most recent pre-Trump American insurgency, the Tea Party, did just that while pulling the Republicans sharply rightward but perhaps the best guide is what has happened in Britain, post-Brexit. Already, I get the impression that everyone has settled down and cannot imagine life within the EU.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

So, the Karabakh War is over. My suspicions of a Turkish-Russian axis seems to have been confirmed. All talk of "the first Turkish ingress into the Russian sphere since 1918" should be treated as risible (though literally true). The result is the same as has happened in both Syria and Libya, the 'world community' has gratefully allowed the two jackals to split the spoils.

As to the peace terms: Armenia has paid the price of imposing an imbecilic settlement when it was on top (result: twenty years of ruinous instability for both sides) and we can expect Azerbaijan to impose another imbecilic settlement now it is is on top (result: another twenty years of ruinous instability for both sides).

Russia and Turkey will reap the results of the instability (arms sales, troops on the ground, oil concessions, informal protectorates etc) while the 'world community' -- specifically in this case France, Germany and the US -- are once again shown up as wrist-flapping do-nothings who, as long as ickle kiddies are not shown in hospitals, are perfectly content with any settlement. Bah, humbug. Not them, us.

[Chad]

Here’s a little piece for our conspiracy loving Trumpeters:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54874120

(‘Dead’ voters, alive and kicking.)

[Mick Harper]

The fag end of Trumpery shows everyone galloping to cement things before the new broom sweeps everything into the dustbin of history. Netanyahu and the boss of Mossad flying in via a Cypriot charter jet for a desert rendezvous with an American Secretary of State and the Clown Prince of Saudi Arabia must be important because the Saudis are denying it ever happened. Let that be their first lesson when tying your horse to the Israeli saddle.

The entire Prime Directive of the Unholy Alliance -- confronting Iran -- is going to look pretty silly when Biden reverses the Nuclear Treaty with Iran and, now that Trump himself has withdrawn from the Middle East, the Americans suddenly find they no longer have any beefs with the Iranians. So, Iran in turn will cease to regard the US as the Great Satan and we can safely resign from the position of Little Satan by giving the Iranians their money back after withholding tanks the Shah had already paid for in 1979. Plus interest, chaps. And a bit more on top for being so daft. Zaghari-Ratcliffe can come home and we can all return to making money.

But newly founded Alliances are always looking round for mischief and just over the other hill there's that other newly-founded Axis of Evil, Russia and Turkey..... I quite miss being a Great Power even though I've been advocating not being one for many years.

[Mick Harper]

It could be war. The EU summit, which we think of as Brexit D-Day but spent ten minutes discussing it, was chiefly concerned with getting its own ducks in a row. First off, Poland and Hungary had to be given a free pass on breaking every EU rule under the sun to get the budget through. But it's energy that's shaking the dovecotes.

You may have noticed the EU has upped its promise to mostly phase out fossil fuels by 2030 and while this is mainly window-dressing (they left out offset so you can pay someone to plant trees and carry on regardless) this has a wider purpose. It's France v Germany. With Britain gone, Germany united and France unable to reform, it's a Deutschland uber alles situation, and Herr Merkel is intent on making Germany the energy czar via the pipelines from Russia. Unless it is all getting phased out...

Not being able to throw its weight about inside the EU, France has picked a fight with Turkey over oil-exploration in the eastern Med and thinks it can lead the EU into battle. Yesterday Macron actually threatened the Turks with more than words. Not only is this crazy in itself ("If you think you're hard enough," says President Erdogan) but three million Turkish Germans may not wish to be led into battle and while they have never been as much bother as France's Moslems, that need not necessarily always be the case.

We're well out of it.

[Grant]

Iran will still be the US’s great enemy whoever is in power. Thus won’t change until Iran is no longer Israel’s enemy number one.

As for Biden, the fascinating question is how long can he last now that the media has discovered that Hunter’s laptop wasn’t just a conspiracy theory. Kamala will be our president by 2022 in return for a pardon for the Bidens

[Mick Harper]

I am a bit inclined to agree with your second supposition. Which, surely, puts your first supposition in some danger. Biden is an old-time Dem and will go with the flow, only slow, but Kamikind is a new breed. Remember, apart from Israel, and assuming the nuclear deal is back on, the US and Iran no longer have any beefs. Now the Jewish lobby is so avowedly Trumpist (I did warn them), she might try to shuck the shackles.

There are greater Satans than one another.

[Mick Harper]

The ultimate absurdity of France's current 'push' into the Eastern Med is that it needs Egypt's support both against Turkey and against the Tripoli government in Libya. And Egypt stands for everything the French can't stand.

"Hi Al, President Macron here, can we count on your support?"
"Absolutely," says President Al-Sisi, "but it'll have to be out in the open. What about a state visit by me to France?"
"We can do that," says President Macron, "we're famous for doing business with people we may not agree with politically."
"And I get the legion d'honneur."
"Ah, that could be un problemo. We only dish them out to people we do approve of. The clue is in the name."
"It's a deal breaker."
"Well... OK... but can it be in a secret ceremony at the Elysée Palace? No journalists present, no official communiqué."
"Sure thing, Macca, whatever helps your end."

Twenty-fours after getting back to Cairo Al-Sisi gave it to the Egyptian press, pictures and all, it goes worldwide and Macron's poll ratings plunge further.

[Boreades]

Is this France being opportunistic and playing their "trump" card? i.e. get in quick before Sleepy Joe gets his hands on (or should I say Kamala Harris)?

My French cousin, Jacque De Boreades, tells me the French have long memories, and are very wary of being dragged into any more Middle Eastern adventures by those Yanks. That includes how George W Bush tried to get France to join in the invasion of Iraq.

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

Could it be that Donald Trump was a better international leader than Saint Merkel?

No doubt Merkel's supporters would say that tactically she is sounder, and no doubt her supporters have a valid point. She doesn't err, tweet without thinking, or try to strike deals with Korean dictators face to face.

But look at the tyrants Merkel has appeased. China, Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Russia, Iran.

[Wile E. Coyote]

They clearly were breaking the law, and the police panicked, but one unarmed protester shot dead, climbing through a window, caught on video, and three more dead from medical emergencies (eh?), is likely to lead to more riots. It's now getting out of hand.

[Mick Harper]

A magnificent example of practical socialism on Al-Jazeera this week. A luxury hotel in the mountains outside Caracas (you can only get there by funicular railway) had, understandably, fallen on hard times but was rescued and renovated at enormous cost by the Maduro government. Not for the rich and idle but to reward hard-working Maduran functionaries.

Al-Jazeera sent a reporter along. The first problem were the wasps' nests in the corners of all the picture windows (inside, not outside). 'Not a problem,' said a hotel functionary. 'It is winter and they are very passive.' Everyone though was there for the banquet, and the serving of Venezuelan national dishes, which the old hotel had been famous for. One rather sorry dish, it turned out, presented over and over again. Between the first and second course, Al-Jazeera made their excuses. They suddenly had a cable car to catch.