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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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All the vaccine trials (lots of young fit volunteers) are basically worthless, at best they will show that a vaccine that is partially effective. Wiles predicts a Covid vaccine will never be given to the over 75s, ie the only group at real risk. To justify all this, us youngsters are all going to have to have a bat flu jab, way after the "pandemic" has passed ..... just to show our solidarity with the elderly and NHS.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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I have spotted ads for fit people over 70 to volunteer for a trial covid vaccine jab.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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You've got a biased sample right there. What kind of sad old git is going to sign up for that? Correct! Left-wingers and other people with an elevated social conscience.
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Chad
In: Ramsbottom
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| What kind of sad old git is going to sign up for that? |
The AEL needs to do its bit.
I'm too young... It's gunna have to be you Mick.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I did once do my duty and signed up for a long term study of trigger factors for Alzheimer's in 'mature, healthy people with presently normal cognitive functioning' but after a battery of tests I was told that I fell below the national norm for cognitive functioning and could therefore not be included.
If I signed up for this one they'll probably tell me I've only got Covid-18 or something. "Michael has been something of an under-achiever this term" is the story of my life.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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| Large Danish mask study rejected by three top journals |
Are Covid masks in Denmark too large? (Like US condoms sent to the USSR). Or was the study rejected because it was too large?
Neither (it seems).
| The researchers behind a large and unique Danish study on the effect of wearing a mask have great difficulties in getting their research results published. One of the participating professors in the study concedes that the still secret research result could be considered ‘controversial’. |
"Great difficulties" it seems is a code phrase for "not complying with the consensus" (Masks good, no masks bad)
Wos'appnin?
| For weeks, media and researchers all over the world have been awaiting the publication of a large Danish study on the effect – or lack thereof – of walking with facemasks in public spaces during the corona pandemic. Now one of the researchers involved in the study can report that the finished research result has been rejected by at least three of the world’s leading medical journals. |
Which three top journals?
| These are The Lancet, The New England Journal of Medicine and the American Medical Association’s journal JAMA. |
Round up the usual suspects.
Yes, but what exactly is "wrong" with the study?
| the professor does not wish to provide the justification given by the journals. “We cannot begin to discuss what they are dissatisfied with, because if we did, we also have to explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss it until it is published,†explains Christian Torp-Pedersen. |
Oh dear. Can we guess what's in the study results?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| "Great difficulties" it seems is a code phrase for "not complying with the consensus" |
I am covering a parallel example in the Dark Age Obscured thread. It was noticeable in the early phases of the pandemic that the normal time-line for peer review and, as far as I could judge, the usual proprieties in evaluating statistical exercises, were being disregarded by these august journals. And quite properly too.
| Which three top journals? |
On the other hand, this does not speak well of the Danes. You can get anything half-decent published in a peer-reviewed journal so why are they holding out for top billing?
| Oh dear. Can we guess what's in the study results? |
My guess is not that masks should or should not be worn -- both these positions have been put forward by different authorities at one time or another -- but that it makes no difference one way or the other. That's something authority really can't stand.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Presume it shows people who wear masks are least likely to social distance therefore are most at risk of being infected or infecting others.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | Of course the deaths are going up -- seventy nine yesterday -- but as I mentioned a coupla months ago, even a hundred a day is hardly worth breaking into a sweat about in terms of the national health |
Well, it's now in the three hundreds and still rising so should I shift position? Maybe. Even taking into account the artificial diminution during the March lock-down and the artificial boost when the restrictions were given their summer break, this is a figure worth worrying about. Especially as "the care home sector" is reporting very low, and very puzzlingly low, death numbers.
The equation now, I suppose, is "excess deaths between lifting of restrictions and the coming of the vaccine" vis à vis "damage of restrictions". Not a number I would care to bandy with. One straw in the wind, and à propos Borry's post, is that Sweden seems to have dropped out of Euro-roundups in favour of the Czech Republic and Belgium.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | Especially as "the care home sector" is reporting very low, and very puzzlingly low, death numbers. |
The Care Home Sector was, err, quicker off the mark with their "stock clearance". The inmates that now remain are the healthier and less vulnerable. Or maybe just the obstinate and bloody minded who refuse to meekly die at the first sneeze, and are growing old disgracefully.
As such, and now that I have a Senior Citizens Bus Pass, I have a sneaking affinity for that group.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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Of all the bars in all of the UK, they had to walk into ...
| Kasablanca in the Highgate area of Birmingham at 01:00 BST on 24 October. |
Why?
| Police have closed a shisha cafe after finding about 150 people inside, days after the venue was hit with a £10,000 fine for Covid-19 breaches. |
I'm shocked, shocked, that I'd never heard of a shisha cafe before.
| Video posted on YouTube shows officers forcing entry to the smokers' lounge on Moseley Street, with shrieks audible as they disperse the crowds. The venue had broken restrictions earlier this month, police said. |
Round up the usual suspects, again.
| Ch Supt Andy Beard said: "It's unacceptable that these businesses continue to flout the law, putting lives at risk and increasing the risk of infections as this deadly virus continues to spread. |
Detailed medical knowledge and awareness of the age demographics (and at-risk groups) of those likely to be in a shisha cafe at 01:00 are not necessary qualifications for Chief Supers in Birmingham.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Well hang on, Borry, I'd never heard of a shisha café and I certainly didn't know they flout, not the Covid laws, but the smoking laws. I assume this is a South Asia thing and, if so, there is something to worry about. We have already seen a marked -- but still unexplained -- correlation between South Asian populations (in Britain) and high Covid rates (for Britain) so it is not so much the spread of Covid we have to worry about here, as the spread of anti-Asian feeling amongst the poor old locked down natives. And they would have a point.
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Chad
In: Ramsbottom
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Latest mortality data published by Public Health England 29/10/2020
| In week 43 2020, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall through the EuroMOMO algorithm. |
(EDIT: Figures just out show week 44 is 11% up)... hmm...)
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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This latest lockdown is particularly depressing. What does Boris & the Gang think is going to happen on 2nd December? We know exactly what will happen because we (and everybody else except for Sweden) went through it before. All the numbers will start going down, so the lockdown will be progressively relaxed, and the numbers will start going up again. As soon as Christmas is safely negotiated, the Jeremiahs will be back filling the airwaves and the cycle can begin all over again.
What do these idiot epidemiologists think will have changed? Since neither herd immunity nor a vaccine will be in sight, absolutely nothing. And a quiet word in the lugholes of all those smug Labour twats with their "If we had only locked down a month ago, a thousand people would still be alive." That's very true but only because a different thousand people will die when your timetable catches up with the Tory timetable. You are, after all, the same Labour twats maundering on about keeping the economy going at all costs.
It is clear that far from trying to get ahead of the virus, we have to be strictly reactive to it. That's what we're good at. Have you noticed the experts are still saying "The NHS will soon be at the point of collapse" as they have been saying since the pandemic started. The NHS is designed to be at the point of collapse, all health services are. Otherwise it's just wasted capacity. If we let the virus rip we just keep constantly extending the NHS. It's like a battlefield situation: as casualties mount, you provide more casualty stations.
Sure, we'll run out of respirators or ICU's (or any number of things) and a few extra people will die (of COVID) who wouldn't have if we had gone down the the constant lock-down/open up route but that is a ridiculously small price to pay for not having a functioning country to live in.
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Grant
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Did you see the news at ten last night? They went to a northern hospital where the critical care ward held 42 beds and was full up. This was evidence of the NHS collapsing. It didn’t appear to have occurred to anyone that as ventilators are now infrequently used on COVID patients they could have just opened another ward and equipped it with oxygen tanks.
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