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The Flu (Health)
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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The world will be transformed by this.

That wouldn't be my best guess. Remember, one day this will be all over and it is just as likely the world will say, "Phew! We were faced with a superbug, we stood united against the superbug, we vanquished the superbug." They may quietly agree not be quite so gung-ho next time or they may be itching to do it all over again, "Now we know how to do it."

Even if your scenario is followed, and there is a Who Were The Guilty Men? conference call, a few heads will roll and life will go on. It may all revolve around whether anti-populists are back in the seats of power, and the Guilty Men need to be punished for anything that can be put on the charge sheet. I share your ambivalence about replacing experts. Revolutions do not normally deliver better outcomes than the status quo ante.
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Ishmael


In: Toronto
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Grant wrote:
Afterwards the population will have no faith in experts any more,


Really? I see no sign of growing scepticism.
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Grant



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One thing this has taught me is how stupid and unthinking people are. Of course, that's essential if a society is to function properly. Still disappointing
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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There are currently more people infected with coronavirus in the White House than in New Zealand -- Andersen Cooper, CNN
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Chad


In: Ramsbottom
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Since mid June the number of deaths in the over 75 age group (in the UK) is approximately 5,000 lower than the statistical norm for this period, with no sign of the weekly trend rising.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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This is the new area of 'careful ignoral'. It used to be hospital admissions but since the NHS can now cope with precautionary COVID cases these have been going up nicely and whenever anyone asks why the death rate is so low (the latest figure for Scotland, when St Nicola announced her new swingeing measures, was 'None') this is waved away by talk of 'increased lag times' and 'more effective treatment'. Prepare to hear more about 'long term effects' on survivors. Especially pretty young students who seem permanently off their prime. (They may be entirely genuine, their condition may have been entirely preventable, but they are in their entirety not worth bringing the country to a halt over.)

Of course the deaths are going up -- seventy nine yesterday -- but as I mentioned a coupla months ago, even a hundred a day is hardly worth breaking into a sweat about in terms of the national health. The only question that now remains is: what would happen if we abandoned all special measures and just let rip? The infection rate would disappear because test-and-trace is a special measure. Several hundred thousand students would get the sniffles. Several thousand oldies would die that maybe wouldn't have. Sorry guys (and I may be one of them) but you weren't worth the country grinding to a halt over. That's life, as Esther used to say. And where has she been, by the way?

The irony is that this situation will be arrived at in due time anyway. Unless and until mass vaccination arrives and COVID-19 can be put in a special box at Porton Down, the British population will always be subject to periodic visitations from COVID as it is with other relatively harmless bugs. Come to think of it, COVID will be all on its ownio at Porton Down because we haven't bothered with any other fluey bug. Except I suppose we will be subject to one every year from now on, just like we have for most years past. It's just a question of risk vs reward except we know now the approximate risk versus the known (un)reward. But will it be enough now the world medical establishment has flexed its muscles and found the exercise so-o-o good?
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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I have (at last, pathetically) realised what the paradigm flaw is in Epidemiology. It is the belief that common infectious diseases can be 'controlled'. They cannot. The Six Degrees of Separation Rule will ensure that sooner or later everyone in the whole wide world will either catch Covid or, as it were, not catch it. Only the availability of mass vaccination will control it in the sense that everyone who catches it won't, as it were, catch it.

This is why the new circuit-breaker policy is so ludicrous. This was done back in March, quite properly, to give everyone time to get prepared. When everyone was prepared and the circuit breaker was lifted, Covid returned to its inevitable and inexorable path. So everyone panicked! "Heavens to Betsy, we must have another circuit-breaker!" But why? Everything's in place. The Nightingales are untouched, the death rate is overall slightly lower than normal for the time of year, all's well in God's Own Acre. Apart from everybody panicking.

But sure, have another circuit-breaker if you want. It'll go down again. Then what? The circuit breaker will have to be lifted before we all starve to death (o.n.o.) and it will go up again. I accept this can-kicking exercise might have some point if we are all waiting for a vaccine to act as a Mega Circuit Breaker but nobody ever mentions that.
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Grant



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I repeat what I said at the beginning of the Great Hysteria. In the only controlled experiment conducted regarding Covid, the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the death rate was 0.1%. That means in Britain 60,000 will die. In the US it will be 350,000. Give or take a few anyway.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Very impressive Grant. I can't say consistency of view is a skill set that Wiles will ever aim for, or achieve, but I can admire it from a safe distance.

No doubt you are right, until proven otherwise.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Death rates are quite irrelevant (except, I suppose, if we were dealing with some kind of instant Black Death scenario). They will be whatever Covid-19 ordains -- be they few or be they many. When the deaths occur can be massaged slightly, like a sausage being squeezed. They can occur when it is inconvenient, as it was back in March, or they can not occur when everyone is panicking, as they are now, and a circuit-breaker is imposed, or they can occur when this latest circuit-breaker is lifted, or they can occur next year until a vaccine is in place (let us say, a year's time).

The question always comes back to: Why halt the world in its tracks to ensure that Covid deaths occur at any particular point in time?
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Ishmael


In: Toronto
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Mick Harper wrote:
Death rates are quite irrelevant (except, I suppose, if we were dealing with some kind of instant Black Death scenario).


The only thing that establishes the Coronavirus as something unique in the environment is the death rate. Otherwise, people are clearly dying of the same diseases present always in our environment, as is evidenced by their dying at exactly the same rate. There is nothing new out there, except what is typically new out there on any given Sunday.

All that has changed is that we now have a "coronavirus test" that is picking up various fragments of the diseases that have always been present and, whenever it records a positive, these are now being labeled as "coronavirus."

There is simply no evidence that this disease exists as anything novel or unique.
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Ishmael


In: Toronto
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There Is No Novel Virus VII


The Covid-19 virus, to my knowledge, has never been isolated. I have read several claims now to this effect from reputable sources. Jon Rappoport, an American Journalist, is the latest source to report that the virus has never been isolated (I have discovered that he has also expressed scepticism that the virus exists).

The CDC has admitted that they have no strains.

And yet, we have this strange case of the anti-Chinese, Hong-Kong doctress, Dr. Li-Meng Yan, claiming to have genomic evidence that this virus was man-made. She examined the genome of the virus and discovered tell-tale clues that it was made with parts of other viruses that could not have evolved in parallel. I have read her evidence and it is absolutely convincing!

So how is this thesis compatible with my own that the virus does not even exist? Does this not prove that there is a virus, if Dr. Yan could examine its genome?

No.

It appears that Dr. Yan has access to what everyone in the west has access: A report on the virus' genome provided by the CCP. No one has a strain. Everyone has a report.

The virus exists only on paper.

Moreover; Dr. Yan's findings support my contentions.

If the virus were real, it would have a naturally-occurring genome. On the other hand, if the genome of the virus had to be invented by the CCP in the context of an international, diplomatic emergency, had to look "novel" and had to look convincing, the authors of its genome would do exactly as they have done: Build a new virus genome using pieces of exisiting, issolated viruses. That's what they authored and released to the word: A data-sheet.
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Ishmael


In: Toronto
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Total US Deaths for 2020 are now below that of the three previous years.

There is no Pandemic. There is no novel virus.
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Ishmael


In: Toronto
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Grant wrote:
I repeat what I said at the beginning of the Great Hysteria. In the only controlled experiment conducted regarding Covid, the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the death rate was 0.1%. That means in Britain 60,000 will die. In the US it will be 350,000. Give or take a few anyway.


This demonstrates only the standard rate at which old people die aboard cruise ships.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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I still maintain this is all irrelevant. If my sausage model is correct, it really doesn't matter what you do -- you're gonna have x number of deaths from whatever it is. All anyone can do is influence when the deaths happen, not how many.

I am listening to a bloke on the telly right now from the 'Great Barrington Declaration' group who are essentially arguing my case though (I think for mainly PR reasons) they are talking about special protection for 'the vulnerable' which is clearly impractical. His opponent -- from the wretched Sage Group -- went mildly apoplectic and when challenged by St Guru actually said, "Well, I can quote from authority..."
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